1  NC in context


North Carolina is the ninth most populous state in the USA as of the 2020 decennial census. One hundred counties descend from the heights of the Appalachian mountains in the west to the Atlantic Ocean in the east. The population has been growing faster than the national average as people move from other states to enjoy the temperate climate, lower cost of living compared to more populated coastal states, the attractions of the mountains and the coast, and the dynamic economies in the urban crescent that runs through the middle of the state.

1.1 Physical geography

The primary geological features of the South Atlantic states are larger than North Carolina: the southern Appalachian “Blue Ridge”, the Piedmont, the fall line abruptly marking the edge of the mid-Atlantic coastal plane, and the coast. Throughout the south Atlantic states, most rivers flow southeast to the coast .

Figure 1.1: Study area and ecoregions in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and the surrounding States. Figure 1 page 12 in Weaver, J.C., Feaster, T.D., and Gotvald, A.J., 2009, Magnitude and frequency of rural floods in the Southeastern United States, through 2006—Volume 2, North Carolina: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5158


The elevation varies from mountains over 6600 ft in the Blue Ridge to the vast coastal plane not much above sea level. The tallest mountain east of the Rockies is in North Carolina: Mt. Mitchell (6684 ft 2037 m).

Figure 1.2: NC elevation


The largest cities are in the urban crescent, which spans the Piedmont from Charlotte to Raleigh.

Figure 1.3: North Carolina. Screenshot from The National Map courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The National Map includes data from National Boundaries Dataset, 3DEP Elevation Program, Geographic Names Information System, National Hydrography Dataset, National Land Cover Database, National Structures Dataset, and National Transportation Dataset; USGS Global Ecosystems; U.S. Census Bureau TIGER/Line data; USFS Road Data; Natural Earth Data; U.S. Department of State Humanitarian Information Unit; and NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, U.S. Coastal Relief Model. Data refreshed June, 2022. Screenshot 2022-11-16.


1.2 US state population and population growth

Over the twenty years from 2000 to 2020, North Carolina surpassed New Jersey and Michigan to become the ninth most populous state. Figure 1.4 shows NC and the subset of states with population larger than NC reported in the decennial censuses 2000-2020.

Figure 1.4: Most populous states 2000-2020


North Carolina grew faster than the national average as reported in the last two decennial census counts. Figure 1.5 shows the subset of states that grew faster than the national average in the ten years to 2010 or 2020.

Figure 1.5: US states growth in population 2000-2020


In nearly all states the growth rate was lower in the ten years to 2020 compared to the ten years to 2010.

Figure 1.6: USA state population growth rate by state population


There were some exceptions:

Twelve states and D.C. grew faster
in the 10 years to 2020
state pct_change_2010 pct_change_2020
North Dakota 5% 16%
District of Columbia 5% 15%
Washington 14% 15%
South Dakota 8% 9%
Nebraska 7% 7%
Massachusetts 3% 7%
New Jersey 4% 6%
Iowa 4% 5%
Rhode Island 0% 4%
New York 2% 4%
Louisiana 1% 3%
Ohio 2% 2%
Michigan −1% 2%


1.3 North Carolina counties


North Carolina extends about 501 miles east to west and 189 miles north to south, with land area encompassing 48,711 square miles (126,161 km2). NC is ranked 28th in size among the states.1

The regional designations below approximately match those in Michael L. Walden’s North Carolina beyond the connected age: the Tar Heel State in 2050 with these differences:

  1. He drew ellipses, while I followed county boundaries. This greatly simplifies my work, since data sources provide county-level data.
  2. I excluded from the coastal region all counties that lack Atlantic coastline, including those bordering the Albemarle and Pamlico sounds. These counties’ economies and demographics more closely resemble their neighboring rural agricultural counties.
  3. I made the urban crescent “technology” region thinner, excluding mostly-rural counties that are experiencing some spill-over from adjacent urban areas.

Figure 1.7: Map of NC counties and regions


For comparison:

Map of North Carolina counties highlighting regions or retirement and toursism (mountains and Altantic coast), technology (the urban crescent), and manufuacturating (southwest and east of the urban crescent).

Figure 1.8: Map of Michael Walden’s economic regions in North Carolina beyond the connected age: the Tar Heel State in 2050. Page 40.


1.4 North Carolina’s largest cities

The map above (Figure 1.7) includes the boundaries of the largest cities:

NC cities with estimated population greater than 90K in 2020
city population county
Charlotte 876,694 Mecklenburg
Raleigh 468,977 Wake, Durham
Greensboro 299,556 Guilford
Durham 284,317 Durham, Wake, Orange
Winston-Salem 249,986 Forsyth
Fayetteville 208,530 Cumberland
Cary 175,635 Wake, Chatham
Wilmington 115,465 New Hanover
High Point 114,271 Guilford, Davidson, Randolph, Forsyth
Concord 105,936 Cabarrus
Asheville 94,855 Buncombe, Henderson
Note: City boundaries and population (not metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs))
Source: NC OneMap ‘NCDOT City Boundaries’

Figure 1.9: NC cities and towns with population > 90,000 in 2020


1.5 Population density

Census tract boundaries reveal population patterns. Since the census bureau tries to keep tract population around 4000, the census tracts are smaller where population is more dense (that is, in cities). The density in outer suburbs and smaller cities is close to the state median. The urban regions have been expanding into formerly rural, agricultural areas within the same counties and in adjacent counties.


Figure 1.10: NC population density in 2020 (census tracts)


Nighttime light (radiance) is a good proxy for population density.2. The lights reveal the same pattern in North Carolina as in other states in the southeast: urban areas extend across county lines, and nearly every rural county has one at least town with higher density population than the surrounding area–presumably the county seat. The North Carolina urban crescent is particularly noticeable in Figure 1.11.

Figure 1.11: Nighttime average radiance in 2020. Cloud-free composite image - Annual VNL V2 from the Earth Observation Group derived from data collected by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s primary instrument, the Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS), employing Visible and Near-Infrared (VNIR) band sensors.


  1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina ↩︎

  2. Exploring Nighttime Light in the U.S. Southeast: Model specification and evaluation in the tidymodels framework by Daniel Moul ↩︎